Justice Malala predicts roller coaster ride until 2019 elections

Political commentator Justice Malala predicts a roller coaster ride until the 2019 elections but that South Africa will eventually undo the economic damage caused by the current leadership.

Speaking at the 29th Financial Planning Institute Professionals Convention being held at the Century City Convention Centre, political commentator and columnist Justice Malala gave delegates insights into the current political climate in South Africa, and how this may be affecting investment and the local economy.

Touching on this week’s surprise cabinet reshuffle by President Jacob Zuma, which saw his long-time supporter, SACP General Secretary Blade Nzimande, booted out of Cabinet, threatening the Tripartite Alliance, Malala warns: “Jacob Zuma did not tell anyone that he was going to have a reshuffle – he informed and moved out. He operates outside the leadership structures of the ANC. He has gone rogue, which means the ANC people voted for is not in power. He acts alone.”

Malala warned that another shuffle may be imminent, as the firing of Nzimande may trigger a decision by the South African Communist Party’s leaders to walk out of Cabinet. This, paired with the uncertainty that the December conference, where a new ANC president would be elected, would go ahead uninterrupted, given the uproar at the recent ANC regional conference in the Eastern Cape, makes for a chaotic political climate.

Contenders to the throne

Of the eight contenders for the ANC Presidency, the front-runners are Cyril Ramaphosa, Zweli Mkhize and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Malala believes that the sentiment of rating agencies would improve and “move north” if Ramaphosa, widely seen as being pro-business, should win.

“Cyril Ramaphosa’s selection and the endorsement of the National Development Plan offers some hope of more effective leadership and a greater focus on structural reforms.” Fitch Ratings, 10 January 2013

“Dlamini-Zuma is seen as an extension of Jacob Zuma and her appointment will only drop the economy to junk status, marking for a very tough economic landscape in SA,” said Malala. “If Dlamini-Zuma wins, the consequence will be dire. State institutions that are captured will continue as they are. The Public Protector and National Prosecuting Authority will continue as they are, with the same consequences we have seen. Gross Domestic Product figures will be as dire as we have ever seen.”

“The choice that the ANC has in December is a choice between life and death. It’s a choice between prosperity and disaster.” — Gwede Mantashe, 10 September 2017

Malala predicts that 2019 may see a coalition between the breakaway elements of the ANC, the EFF and DA.

Power of civil society

It’s not all doom and gloom for South Africa’s leadership and economy with Malala focusing on the uprising by ordinary civilians in response to corruption and state capture. “Press freedom has not been compromised and the Constitution protects our freedoms. The opposition in SA is strong and only growing stronger; that is a very comforting development in our politics. Now we need the IEC to remain independent and not captured, to ensure that in 2019 when we have a real race, the institution is trusted by the people.”

While there appears to be a lack of consequence with regard to the ‘Gupta leaks’, Malala says this doesn’t mean there is no action, pointing to Dudu Myeni’s departure from South African Airways under pressure from the banking sector, and the Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse (Outa’s) success in preventing the Gupta-owned Optimum and Koornfontein coal mines from receiving R1.75 billion in disputed mine rehabilitation payments.

Finding true north

Malala warns that the next two years (leading up to the 2019 government elections) will not give South Africa a reprieve, but eventually “we will find our true north”. It’s a time for fracture and disunity and that will have consequences for all.

Jacob Zuma may go but we still need to change the way we view leadership, says Malala.

“We can’t pretend the last 10 years haven’t taken us [South Africans] back economically in terms of transformation. Since 2009, unemployment has only increased to where it is today, at 27.7%. To correct this will take leadership and hard work, and perhaps then we can begin to turn things around [economically].”