South Africa is standing at the edge of a fiscal precipice
The South African government will have to take decisive action if it hopes to avert a fiscal meltdown over the next five to 10 years. Kevin Lings, chief economist at Stanlib, said that urgent intervention was needed to avoid the worst case debt-to-GDP pathway set out in finance minister Tito Mboweni’s 24 June 2020 supplementary budget. “If government carries on as usual and the economy continues to struggle, then debt will ramp up to a forecast 140% of GDP by 2028/9,” he said. “We are heading towards a fiscal crisis that ends with a debt default, an IMF bailout, or an extensive prescribed asset scenario”. Lings was commenting during a Liberty Budget Commentary panel discussion, hosted by Bruce Whitfield, held 29 June 2020.