Economy

Recalibrating the fiscal framework for a low-inflation era

Momentum Investments’ economists have released a post-MTBPS review titled “Recalibrating the fiscal framework for a low-inflation era”, offering a sharp, data-backed view on Treasury’s new fiscal stance. The attached unpacks how Treasury’s firm commitment to fiscal discipline, the adoption of a lower 3% inflation target, and early signs of stabilising debt could mark the start of a fiscal turnaround, potentially edging South Africa closer to a sovereign ratings upgrade.

The South African Institute of Taxation (SAIT) - Anticipating the 2025 medium-term budget policy

As we approach the 2025 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), expectations are high that the Minister of Finance will provide an update on the results of the National Treasury’s capacitation efforts in supporting SARS to enhance revenue collection. Regular cash-collection figures are being published by the Treasury and SARS to monitor how much additional debt is collected, and how much leakage is prevented, ultimately aiming to measure whether the capacity investments are yielding results.

Medium-term budget preview: Windfalls, warnings and waiting for a ratings lift

As South Africa prepares for the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, Momentum Investments’ latest research suggests the country’s fiscal story is turning a cautious corner. Afloat commodity prices, firmer tax receipts and lower bond yields have improved the fiscal outlook, raising the possibility of a sovereign ratings lift in 2026.

South Africa faces 1930s-level tariffs as reform window narrows