The South African Institute of Taxation (SAIT) - Anticipating the 2025 medium-term budget policy

As we approach the 2025 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), expectations are high that the Minister of Finance will provide an update on the results of the National Treasury’s capacitation efforts in supporting SARS to enhance revenue collection. Regular cash-collection figures are being published by the Treasury and SARS to monitor how much additional debt is collected, and how much leakage is prevented, ultimately aiming to measure whether the capacity investments are yielding results.

The MTBPS, often referred to as the “mini-budget”, serves as a fiscal mid-point — a progress report on government spending and revenue collection, as well as a preview of the direction for the Budget of the next fiscal year. From a tax perspective, we do not anticipate major policy shifts or new tax announcements, even though several amendments remain in the pipeline, such as those relating to section 8E, collective investment schemes, and those to section 10(1)(gC)(ii).

Instead, we expect a stronger emphasis on capacity building within SARS. Over the past year, SARS has demonstrated a renewed ability to collect what is due and positioned itself well to reach the R2 trillion mark announced by the Minister of Finance. This performance underscores SARS’ ongoing investments in human capital, technology, and additional compliance projects are paying off.

To this end, we anticipate that the Minister of Finance will allocate additional funding to SARS to further bolster these gains, particularly in support of Modernisation 3.0, which aims to integrate artificial intelligence and advanced data analytics into revenue collection. SARS’ strategic use of debt collectors, alongside its expanded compliance drives, signals a clear move toward a more data-driven, enforcement-oriented tax administration.

Importantly, this reflects the Minister of Finance’s consistent message since Budget 3.0, that if SARS effectively collects what is already due, the need to introduce new or higher taxes diminishes significantly. The policy direction, therefore, appears to be one of strengthening the existing system, rather than expanding it.

If the main budget speeches earlier this year were any indication, this MTBPS will likely be more than a routine report-back. We anticipate a detailed and transparent account of how far fiscal objectives have been met, framed within the context of a government that is increasingly moving toward greater accountability, efficiency, and performance-based delivery.

This upcoming statement will serve not only as a fiscal update but as an indicator of how South Africa’s tax and revenue landscape is evolving, particularly through maximising the collection of existing and due taxes through new initiatives, bolstering capacity and introducing innovation.

The South African Institute of Taxation (SAIT) remains committed to empowering tax professionals, protecting taxpayers and contributing to a fair and thriving economy.