SONA 2026 optimism masks economic constraints
The State of the Nation Address (SONA 2026) delivered by President Cyril Ramaphosa on 12 February had everything you might expect of an election year update. It kicked off with a lengthy reminder of the country’s fractious history before balancing countless laments about inequality and joblessness with promises of a better, brighter future for all.
Peaceful and united
The opening paragraphs focused on the role of women and the youth in chipping away at the oppressive Apartheid regime before reflecting on the Constitution implemented at the dawn of democracy in the mid 1990s. “Ours is a Constitution that reflects the aspirations of the people of South Africa for a nation that is united and at peace; a nation that has thrown off the shackles of oppression and a divided past,” the President said.
He then segued into a series of self-congratulations worthy of inclusion in a US President Donald Trump sermon. The core message was that the country was stronger than it had been 12 months prior. “Our economy is growing again, and this growth is gathering pace,” Ramaphosa said, referencing four consecutive quarters of GDP growth; two consecutive primary budget surpluses; recent credit rating upgrades; interest rates coming down; low inflation; and a strong rand. These points proved the country was “on a clear path to stabilising its national debt.”
Well, yes and no. Your writer recalls an International Monetary Fund (IMF) release published moments before SONA 2026. Per IMF PR 26/039, SA’s debt was far too high. Government debt-to-GDP stood at 77% at end-March 2025 and was projected at 80% by 2027. “SA’s post-pandemic recovery has been hampered by repeated global shocks and domestic challenges, including, more recently, increased protectionism, fragmentation and global trade policy uncertainty,” the IMF wrote. They argued that growth in the 1.3-1.8% range and inflation at 3.2% did not offset fiscal concerns and offered 60% as a country appropriate debt-GDP level.
The Operation Vulindlela effect
Ramaphosa’s speech writers were undeterred. They drew heavily on Operation Vulindlela, a joint initiative between National Treasury and the Presidency launched in 2020 to accelerate structural reforms, to paint a rosy picture. This allowed the President to claim successes in areas like electricity supply, declaring the end of load-shedding; improved logistics performance at ports and railways; and a restored passenger rail system. There were even hints that the rate of unemployment was starting to decline, though the latest 31.9% is nothing to celebrate.
South Africans should celebrate every success, but the confident mention of state-sponsored employment initiatives seems a bit out of kilter with news flow from the country’s private sector. The 2.5 million opportunities created through the Presidential Employment Stimulus, Expanded Public Works Programme and Community Work Programme have to be funded from a dwindling taxpayer base that is being further eroded by job cuts in the automobile and smelter sectors, to name but two.
“We can only be strong when we are equal, when the progress we have made is shared by all South Africans,” said Ramaphosa, selling a message that vests in Western social democracy, but needs interpreting in the context of low growth, high unemployment and a populist redistribution narrative. The Constitution reinforces this social-democratic vision through its focus on equality, but weak growth and persistent political mismanagement continue to steer decision makers away from opportunity-led reform towards centralisation of state power.
Getting tough on organised crime
The centralisation of state power was a theme throughout the SONA address. For example, after years of the Western Cape begging for greater independence in policing, the President responded by announcing the deployment of South African National Defence Force (SANDF) resources to assist police in tackling gang warfare. The SANDF will also be deployed to counter illegal mining in Gauteng. At least the problem has been acknowledged: “Organised crime is the most immediate threat to our democracy, our society and our economy.”
Other crime-fighting promises included streamlining firearms and ammunition regulation, enforcement of existing gun laws and recruiting another 5 500 police officers. Your writer cannot condemn the intent, but it is worth noting a couple of concerns. Tighter gun control is one thing, but ploughing headlong into a new regulatory environment that seeks to restrict guns across private sector security firms is not the way to go. Nor is employing additional police officers on the current foundation being unearthed by the Madlanga and other commissions of enquiry.
“The hearings of the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry have exposed rampant corruption in the South African Police Service (SAPS) and some Metro Police departments through abuse of power,” the President conceded, before promising a clampdown, swift independent investigations and a re-vetting of senior management across the aforementioned law enforcement entities. Ramaphosa talked a tough game littered with phrases like “zero tolerance,” “full force of the law” and “no impunity for acts of corruption and criminality”. But South Africans have heard this all before.
Throwing good money after bad
As an aside, the number of officers in the police or military is not a reflection of capability, nor are the amounts redirected to a country’s defence or policing budgets guarantees of a turnaround. The same argument holds for education and healthcare, where fresh billions will simply disappear unless there is a noticeable redesign of key operational metrics. SONA 2026 had plenty to say about education, but the upbeat comments belie an education and training landscape constrained rather than uplifted by government control.
Comments on the rejuvenation of public healthcare infrastructure under the quavering National Health Insurance (NHI) implementation seemed disconnected from reality too. The President promised investment in health facilities, personnel and infrastructure as part of the state’s “work to build a healthy nation” but made no mention of the virtual stalling of the universal healthcare initiative due to its troubled conception. Those seeking an update on NHI should read BusinessTech’s recent “Major warnings about the NHI coming true”, which hints that countless court challenges could tie implementation in knots for decades to come.
Responses to the country’s ailing electricity and water infrastructure featured prominently in SONA 2026. Under the former, the President promised to steer Eskom’s management back onto the agreed course. This includes the creation of a fully independent state-owned transmission entity that “will have ownership and control of transmission assets and be responsible for operating the electricity market.” Time will tell whether the Minister of Electricity and Energy will play ball.
If only it were that simple
Under the latter now national disaster, he declared: “I have directed the Minister of Water and Sanitation and her deputies as well as the Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs to attend to the water shortage problem and engage with our communities.” Ramaphosa will also oversee a National Water Crisis Committee. So, there you have it, dear reader, both the electricity and water crises are now addressed.
The President singled out agriculture, mining, services, tourism and the green economy as potential drivers of future economic growth. Noting the drag of the recent foot and mouth outbreak on the agriculture sector, he undertook to “vaccinate the national herd of 14 million cattle”, requiring some 28 million vaccines over the next 12 months. One can only hope for delivery here, because to date the state’s response to this disaster has been abject. Case in point, the state’s Agricultural Research Council (ARC) was recently celebrating the first locally produced foot and mouth vaccines in 20 years, a whopping 12 900 units in response to a years-long outbreak.
In this local election year, SONA 2026 reminded its audience of the GNU’s triple objective of driving inclusive growth and job creation; reducing poverty and tackling the high cost of living; and building a capable, ethical and developmental state. These are great aims, but in practice the current political collaboration has diluted the core political ideologies of opposition parties. South Africans will have to wait until early 2027 to discover whether the promises in this SONA revitalise the ruling African National Congress’ dwindling support base.
Stronger together?
“2026 must be the year that we make South Africa stronger,” the President concluded. “We must fix local government; we must fight crime, corruption and restore trust in the criminal justice system; we must create jobs and livelihoods for every South African; and we must build a state that works for the people.” Yes, with one caveat. We, being the government, do not need to deliver on this long list, but merely create an enabling environment for the private sector to do so.
Writer’s thoughts:
Like many of its predecessors, SONA 2026 was littered with promises of ending crime, inclusive growth and jobs for all. Did the President’s address do enough to convince you that this year will be different? Please comment below, interact with us on X at @fanews_online or email us your thoughts [email protected].
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