Some clarity

It helps shed light on the most important import and export categories and trading partners.

60% to 65% of South Africa's exports are commodity-related. Hence, the influence of commodity prices on the performance of the rand. Gold's importance to the economy has declined significantly - from 50% of exports in 1980 to 13% currently, though it remains our largest export item.

Other important export categories are iron and steel (12.5%), motor vehicles (9.3%), platinum (8.8%) and agriculture (6.6%).

The UK is the top recipient of our exports, taking up 13%, though this is distorted by the fact that all platinum exports are routed through the UK.

Exports to Europe makes up 39% of the total. Surprisingly, China only takes up around 5% of exports, but it is the fastest growing market for our goods given its current demand for commodities.

The largest import item is machinery (19.2%) and Germany - whose main export is capital equipment - is our largest supplier. The second largest import category is motor vehicles, comprising16.6% of the total.

South Africa remains a net importer of motor vehicles. Oil imports are 10% of the total. While our trade balance is susceptible to swings in the oil price, our coal and other mineral fuel exports provide a partial hedge. Saudi Arabia and Iran are our principle suppliers of oil.

In the months ahead we expect continued strength in commodity prices, though the strong rand will continue to erode our global competitiveness.

The currency is hurting capital intensive businesses, and the import of capital equipment should soften. Consumer demand is robust at the moment, propping up import levels.

At some point, job losses will likely dampen consumer spending, which would put a lid on consumer import demand.

All this points towards a gradually deteriorating current account, which will eventually result in a somewhat weaker currency. The timing of the reversal remains a mystery.