SA economy shows signs of health despite decline

Dr Caroline Belrose, Head of Fraud and Data Analytics at BankservAfrica.

October saw a higher number of payment system transactions under R5 million than those recorded in September, according to the BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index (BETI) which measures these transactions.

Despite the month-on-month upturn, the quarterly changes still show a shrinking economy, although less so than in September.

Regardless of five monthly declines in 2015 so far, the index has remained positive on where it was a year ago, mainly due to a strong end to 2014 and a strong February early in 2015.

The real value of economic transactions in the economy continues to show an increase, however the year-on-year increase has declined in line with the months of negative growth that slowed the positive annual trend.

Nonetheless, the BETI shows at least a small break from the negative declines, providing a very welcome month of positive data that gives the fourth quarter an improved outlook.

“Overall, the transaction volumes are indicative of a very weak economy that is not experiencing significant growth,” says Mike Schüssler, Chief Economist at Economists dotcoza. “October is the first month with a positive increase in the last four months, and only the second increase in the last six months on a month-on-month comparison. This indicates that concerning economic conditions remain, but that the economy is showing a degree of resilience.”

However, for the third month in a row the actual number of transactions declined.

“Overall the transaction volumes declined by 0.7% when compared to a year ago, while the actual transaction values have increased. This is the third consecutive month of declines when compared to this time last year,” says Dr Caroline Belrose, Head of Fraud and Data Analytics at BankservAfrica.

“Generally the BETI has grown faster than inflation over the last year, but not by much. The standardised BETI recorded a value of R719.5 billion, which was 6.5% higher on a year ago. The standardised value adjusts for the number of weekdays and weekends which has an impact on the actual BETI.”