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SA economic outlook - in the eye of the storm

15 May 2008 Bureau for Economic Research (BER)

Following a period of strong economic growth, the SA economy is heading for a substantial slowdown during 2008/9. While a number of exogenous headwinds are confronting SA's economic performance, the steady increase in inflation and interest rates since 2006 is arguably the most potent force in the current economic slowdown. The inflation and interest rate outlook remains uncertain in the face of higher food & energy prices. The domestic market will remain under immense pressure over the short term while net exports are expected to recover. Accelerating public sector fixed investment will be another key support. Aggregate real GDP growth is forecast to average around 3½% during 2008/9. The risks remain primarily on the downside.

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