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US Fed in Holding Pattern, but for How Long?

06 November 2013

At its October 29-30 policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) again put off the so-called “tapering” of its $85 billion-a-month asset purchase plan, now over a year old, until some future date. In an official statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, the Fed cited fiscal policy issues as restraining growth and said it will continue its quantitative easing program (known as “QE”) until the job market improves “substantially.” Christopher Molumphy, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group®, believes the Fed won’t likely ease off the liquidity pedal until the first quarter of 2014 and thinks any outright increase in interest rates probably won’t be seen until 2015. More from Molumphy on Fed policy and what it might mean for the interest-rate markets. The October Federal Open Market Committee meeting held no real surprises for most market participants. It had been a relatively short period of time since the previous meeting in September. On top of that, the 16-day US government shutdown in the intervening period resulted not only in distortions in some of the economic data, but also data release delays.

Old Mutual Investment Group questions if global economy has reached escape velocity levels

30 October 2013

The global economy is possibly poised for an extended recovery period, with the US showing the way and the Eurozone still having quite a way to go. This is according to Old Mutual Equities Strategist, Graham Bell who, speaking at the Old Mutual Investment Group Q3 investment briefing today, said that the global growth run-rate is rising, and while South African equities are currently looking expensive, they can still perform in a risk-on world.

Coface Upgrades US, Downgrades Brazil and Thailand

24 October 2013

International credit insurer Coface says growth and business leader confidence is returning to the United States.

RSA 2013 Christmas sales outlook

17 October 2013

The nominal growth in December 2012 retail sales of 6.1% (1.5% real) was by far the worst performance since 2009 and significantly below our expectations. This below-par year-end result was in stark contrast in the strong mid-2012 performance. Against this backdrop, and taking into account the assault on household finances, the current modest mid-year performance may well be expected to presage a disappointing year-end outcome.

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