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MTBPS 2016: The different shades of junk

27 October 2016

The 2016 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) illustrates the South African National Treasury’s intent to continue following a path of fiscal consolidation as it aims to stabilise government’s debt ratio and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.

MTBPS 2016: Additional taxes and spending cuts used to negate weaker growth impact on fiscus

27 October 2016

In its 2016 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), South Africa’s National Treasury unsurprisingly revised its estimates of real GDP growth lower to around 1.5% p.a. between the current fiscal year (FY2016/17) and FY2018/19, from 1.9% projected at the tabling of the February 2016 National Budget (see chart 1).

MTBPS shows fiscal prudence despite many obstacles

27 October 2016

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan delivered the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) 2016 to Parliament on Wednesday, October 26. The MTBPS is a government report providing information on the country’s economic context, fiscal objectives, and spending priorities over a threeyear period. Given South Africa’s current economic and political context, this year’s MTBPS was one of the most anticipated since the annual statement was launched almost 20 years ago.

MTBPS reveals solid effort in difficult circumstances, but nothing exciting

27 October 2016

Fiscal consolidation continues: deficit lower over medium-term framework, but again – as we have seen over the last several years – has been revised wider. Realising the bind between fiscal consolidation and slow growth, Treasury labels it ‘a measured consolidation’. The impact of slower growth on tax revenues is substantial, but fortunately Treasury has managed to keep spending under control. Although this continues the task of fiscal consolidation, the goalposts have again been shifted.

quick poll

Question

If you had to hazard a guess, when do you reckon the COFI Bill will be signed into law?

Answer

2026, as promised 2027 looks more likely Impossible to say More consultation needed

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