Is the Africa honeymoon over?

Luke Doig, Senior Economist at Credit Guarantee Insurance Corporation.

Against the backdrop of a global economy stuck in first gear, one has to ask the question whether the previous title relating to Africa of 'resilient in the face of headwinds' still applies.

The IMF expects Sub-Saharan African growth of just 3% this year (2015 = 3.4%) and 4% in 2017.

Luke Doig, Senior Economist at Credit Guarantee Insurance Corporation, says, “This clearly demonstrates that the risk environment has deteriorated and the slowdown in Sub-Saharan Africa has already resulted in increased payment risks and actual defaults. The currency shortages are set to persist as commodity prices recover slowly.

“In 2014 Africa accounted for 30.1% of RSA exports; this has fallen to 28.5% in the first 2 months of 2016 and could further be at risk if the recovery expected by the IMF does not materialise,” concludes Doig.