BankservAfrica’s February transactional index – positive for SA economy

Dr Caroline Belrose, Head of Information Services at BankservAfrica.

BETI’s monthly and quarterly improvements suggest an upward trend emerging.

The flow of money through the South African financial system improved on both a monthly and quarterly basis, according to BankservAfrica’s latest Economic Transaction Index (BETI) for February 2017.

“The headline BETI, adjusted in line with inflation, reflected a strong 1.9% increase on a month-on-month basis,” says Dr Caroline Belrose, Head of Information Services at BankservAfrica. This is the second consecutive month of notable improvements.

The nominal standardised value of transactions processed by BankservAfrica during February was R789 billion with 86 million transactions with the average transactional value being R8 470. These are notably higher than January’s values.

Providing further proof that 2017 is off to a better start, are the quarterly BETI figures that reflected a 1.4% increase for the three months leading to February compared to the previous quarter to November.

February’s BETI, however, declined on a year-on-year basis by -1.2% compared to the 0.2% observed in February 2016. Although it is likely that the annual changes will remain negative for a few more months, the positive short-term trend should see the annual figures move into positive territory from around May 2017 onwards.

“The continued rainfall in the northern parts of the country together with recovering commodity prices point to continued improvement in South Africa’s primary economy,” says Mike Schüssler, Chief Economist at Economists dotcoza. The momentum in the manufacturing sector – as indicated in the improved month-on-month reading of February’s Purchasing Manufacturing Index – is a positive development for the South African economy.

However, new vehicle sales stagnated by -0.1% year-on-year in February 2017 following the 3.6% growth in the previous month. “While the production side of the economy is picking up, it is very likely that consumers will remain under pressure,” says Schüssler.