Any sense in SA's trade numbers?

The Numbers

Cumulative:

Exports: Jan – Dec 2007 R491.97 billion

Imports: Jan – Dec 2007 R561.25 billion

Trade Balance: Jan-Dec R69.28 billion

Monthly:

Exports: Dec: R42.613 billion

Imports: Dec: R43.834 billion

Balance: - R 1.222 billion

Comments:

According to the monthly trade numbers released by Sars South Africa recorded a trade deficit of R1.222 billion in December. This is due to imports of R43.834 billion again outnumbering exports of R42.613 billion.

However, in stead of increasing the cumulative trade deficit of R71.28 billion (from January to November) by R1.222 billion, the cumulative trade deficit decreased by R2 billion to R69.28 billion.

This begs the question: Did South Africa suffer a trade deficit in December or was a surplus recorded?

The difference in the numbers is not only confusing, but makes it difficult for markets to operate efficiently. For example, it has happened before that a huge monthly trade deficit was announced leading to a rand sell-off whereas the cumulative trade deficit (the number that really counts) was actually half the announced amount.

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However, this is only half the problem. The Sars trade deficit differs from that of the South African Reserve Bank. The main reason is because Sars does not include South Africa’s trade to other customs union countries in its data. As a result the trade deficit is exaggerated.