Good budget shows willingness to take difficult decisions – and hopefully keep Moody’s on hold
22 February 2018
By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus. Coupled with the recent change in the President, this Budget should be enough to keep Moody’s on hold when they release their South Africa sovereign review on March 22nd. If a good cabinet is appointed in the coming week, it may even be enough for Moody’s also to move the outlook to stable from negative. However, there are two concerns – firstly, that the debt-to-GDP profile does not stabilise for five years, and secondly, the public sector wage settlement that is still being negotiated.