Budget 2017

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Budget 2017 - Still at the crossroads

23 February 2017

There were no surprises in Budget 2017 relative to pre-Budget expectations, which maps out a credible path to the stabilisation of the government debt ratio over the medium term. Importantly, government revenue is projected to exceed non-interest spending on the Main Budget by 2018/19.

Delicate balancing act

23 February 2017

At a time of severe economic stress in South Africa, the Minister of Finance had few options available to deliver a budget which is “highly redistributive to poor and working families”. The outcome, therefore, contained few surprises and will help to promote transformation and redistribution.

Budget | Holding the line… sort of

22 February 2017

Under difficult circumstances, National Treasury produced a Budget very much in line with the October Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), particularly on the expenditure side. While there will be some disappointment in the revenue slippage and increased issuance, we believe the budget should be enough to retain SA’s credit rating through June 2017 - provided that there are no major personnel changes at the Finance department and that growth continues to improve as forecast. Unfortunately, the former in particular is not a given at this point.

What can we expect from the 2017 Budget Speech?

21 February 2017

This year’s Budget Speech will attract a great deal of attention. In the Trevor Manual years, the Budget was a fairly dull and technocratic affair focused on numbers, such as the extent of tax relief (which was possible in those boom times) and not politics. There was no doubt that Manual had the support of his colleagues in the Cabinet. Furthermore, South Africa’s credit ratings were improving, partly as a result of better fiscal management and also because of a global upgrading cycle on the back of strong growth. The increased attention on the Budget is largely because of the threat to South Africa’s credit rating as we are still in a global downgrading cycle and have experienced a rapid build-up in debt and decline in growth.

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