South Africa awaits FATF greylisting verdict: a key timeline and expert analysis

With the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) set to announce its decision on South Africa’s greylisting status in the coming weeks, the nation’s economy and international standing hang in the balance.

nCino KYC Africa, a leader in financial crime compliance technology, has released a timeline of key events and expert commentary to provide critical context on the journey to this verdict and the high stakes involved.

"This isn’t a case where we are waiting for a mere announcement; it's going to be a verdict on our country's resolve to combat the scourge of sophisticated financial crime," says Hawken McEwan, Director of Risk & Compliance at nCino KYC Africa. "Whether we are removed from the list or not, the underlying issues that led us here will demand more and more vigilance. The bar is going to keep rising, because criminals will keep innovating. If we slack off, the list will catch up to us again."

The economic impact: What’s at stake
Since being greylisted, South Africa has faced dramatically increased costs of doing business internationally, reduced foreign investment, and significant reputational damage. Analysis by National Treasury and various economists has consistently pointed to the detrimental effect on already low GDP growth and capital flows, with the ultimate cost running into billions of Rands.

A 2023 report by research firm Intellidex estimated that the ultimate cost could be a contraction of South Africa's GDP by up to 3% over the long term, eroding capital inflows and increasing the cost of capital for all.

Key milestones in the greylisting journey
1. October 2019: The warning shot
- The FATF’s Mutual Evaluation of South Africa identified major deficiencies in the country's ability to combat money laundering and terrorist related financing. The report highlighted a lack of effective oversight by supervising bodies, inadequate investigation and prosecution of financial related crimes, a weak framework to deal with terrorism related threats and lacking information around corporate transparency and beneficial ownership.
- Expert insight from Hawken McEwan: "The 2019 report was a clear signal that our legislative framework was not translating into tangible and sustained results. The world wasn't asking more laws of us; it was asking for evidence that our existing laws were being enforced effectively."

2. December 2022: The legislative scramble
- In an effort to avoid greylisting, Parliament passed the General Laws (Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Terrorism Financing) Amendment Act. The act aimed to address some of the FATF's technical concerns by broadening the scope of accountable institutions, bringing proliferation financing into scope and introducing requirements for beneficial ownership registers.

3. February 2023: Greylisting confirmed
- Despite the legislative efforts, the FATF placed South Africa on its list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. The core issue remained a failure to demonstrate "effective implementation" across eight key areas of concern.
- Expert insight from Hawken McEwan: "This decision confirmed that passing laws at the eleventh hour wasn’t going to cut it. The FATF needed to see a track record of action – successful investigations, prosecutions, and asset forfeitures – which simply wasn't there yet."

4. October 2025: The verdict awaits
- After almost 3 years on the list, the FATF is set to announce its decision. The outcome will likely feature prominently in discussions around the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) tabled in November.

The FATF’s required action plan
The FATF’s core demands centred on proving the system works in practice. Key requirements included:

- Effective use of financial intelligence by law enforcement to support investigations.
- A dramatic increase in the investigation and prosecution of serious money laundering and terrorist financing cases.
- The establishment of a beneficial ownership registers to stop criminals from hiding behind complex legal structures.
- Strengthened risk-based supervision of accountable institutions.

"Regardless of the outcome in October, the pressure, whether on the country as a whole, or on the people working at accountable institutions from car dealerships to real estate agencies, is not going to ease," concludes McEwan.

“Accountable institutions must now operate with the assumption that hyper-vigilance, backed by smart technology that can detect red flags in real-time, is the new baseline for doing business in South Africa.”