Global property & casualty insurance premiums expected to more than double to USD 4.3 trillion by 2040, Swiss Re Institute forecasts

06 September 2021 Swiss Re

• Property & casualty (P&C) business to become riskier and more complex; opportunities in fundamental shift from lower-risk, high-volume motor insurance to catastrophe-exposed property lines
• Property to be fastest growing P&C line, with premiums set to almost triple to USD 1.3 trillion in 2040 from USD 450 billion in 2020, driven by effects of economic development and climate change
• Motor remains largest line of P&C business, with premiums expected to almost double to up to USD 1.4 trillion by 2040

Global P&C premiums are expected to more than double to USD 4.3 trillion in 2040 from USD 1.8 trillion in 2020, as the P&C portfolio composition is expected to shift from lower-risk motor insurance towards higher-risk property and liability lines, according to Swiss Re Institute’s sigma study, More risk: the changing nature of P&C insurance opportunities to 2040. Property insurance is forecast to become the fastest growing line of business. Motor, although its share is shrinking, is expected to remain the largest of all P&C lines, with premiums forecast to almost double by 2040.

Property insurance is forecast to grow by 5.3% annually with global insurance premiums rising to USD 1.3 trillion in 2040 from USD 450 billion in 2020. Economic development will remain the key driver of rising property premiums, contributing 75%, or up to USD 616 billion of new premiums. Climate-related risks are expected to result in a 22% increase in global property premiums, or up to USD 183 billion, over the next 20 years as weather-related catastrophes will likely become both more intense and frequent.

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